Late-round PPR running back targets: Jerick McKinnon, Tank Bigsby and more

June 30, 2024

The benefit of running backs in PPR leagues is that they can provide two strong scoring paths if the back has rushing and receiving talents, but the downside occurs if they lack pass-catching skills. This can present issues early in drafts, but where it can really hurt a team is in the later rounds when the RB candidate list has been slimmed down.

This article aims to assist fantasy managers with that by providing a list of eight quality backup running back candidates in PPR leagues who should still be on the board in most draft rooms in Rounds 9 or later. It contains deep dive write-ups from my 2023 draft guide (available here) and uses the upside/downside/overall/draft strategy format detailed in my 2023 fantasy football quarterback rankings.

Jerick McKinnon, KC

Upside case: McKinnon has displayed big-play ability quite often in his career and did so again in 2022, ranking second among running backs with 100+ touches in percentage of plays gaining 10+ yards. Andy Reid isn’t averse to rotating backs and since Isiah Pacheco has never tallied 200+ touches in a season (college or pro), this could be one of those times. McKinnon tallied 56 receptions and nine receiving scores last year, so he’s locked in as the Chiefs’ pass-catching back. Kansas City’s run blocking is on par with the top teams in the league, as evidenced by a superb 46.8 GBR (Good Blocking Rate) last year. The Chiefs don’t face a red-rated run defense until Week 14 and have three green-rated matchups in the first seven weeks.

Downside case: Reid views this as a thunder-and-lightning setup with McKinnon being the lightning/pass-catching back, so carries will likely be limited for McKinnon. Clyde Edwards-Helaire could carve out a role as a rusher or receiver in this backfield. McKinnon is headed into his age-31 season and hasn’t posted more than 128 scrimmage plays since 2017. A receiving touchdown regression is almost a certainty.

Overall case: He’s been an RB2 in two of the past four years, including last season, and has plenty of value as a pass-catching back in arguably the best offense in the NFL, but a repeat of last year still seems unlikely. That projected return to form brings McKinnon into the RB3 tier.

Draft strategy: McKinnon is slotting as a borderline RB3/RB4 in many draft rankings, so he should be one of the best value picks a fantasy manager can make in Rounds 9-10.

Samaje Perine, DEN

Upside case: There is a very good chance this offense goes with a platoon setup that divides the workload between Perine and Javonte Williams. Sean Payton will operate a run-centric system this year, but Payton will still utilize Perine’s recently expanded pass-catching talents. Denver had a respectable 39.6 GBR last year and could see an improvement in that metric due to some strong run blocking offensive line additions. The schedule doesn’t see a red-rated matchup until Week 10, has only two red-rated matchups all year, and has seven green-rated matchups, including five in Weeks 12-17.

Downside case: What’s the upper workload limit for Perine? He posted 133 scrimmage plays last season, a total that was the most Perine has tallied since his 2017 rookie campaign when he had 197 scrimmage plays. Payton is careful not to wear his backs down, so he could cap Perine’s usage on the lower end of the platoon division. Perine hasn’t tallied a carry inside the 5-yard line since 2020, so it’s unclear if he will get the goal-line role.

Overall case: Payton doesn’t look to have brought Perine in to be an alternate back, but instead has a platoon role in mind for him. Add that to what should be a solid pass-catching volume and Perine has RB3 value.

Draft strategy: That RB3 value is much higher than where Perine rates in fantasy football ADP, as he has mid-range RB4 draft value in many outlets. That makes him a fantastic value as early as Round 8, but he might stay on boards until Round 9 or later.

Zach Charbonnet, SEA

Upside case: Charbonnet led the nation in all-purpose yards per game last year at UCLA. He also topped the Pac-12 in rush yards per game and YPC. He was only the ninth UCLA player to rush for 1000+ yards in consecutive seasons and the second to rush for 150+ yards in three games in a row. Pete Carroll has indicated Charbonnet and Ken Walker will compete for playing time, so carries could be there for the taking. Charbonnet is a much better pass catcher than Walker, so he should easily win that part of the battle. He posted 200+ scrimmage plays in each of the past two years, so Charbonnet has proven durability. Charbonnet has also graded out well in pass blocking. There are three green-rated matchups in Weeks 1-8.

Downside case: Walker is a power back with breakaway skills (10.2 GBYPA last year) and Charbonnet is an adept pass catcher, so the most likely workload split is a thunder/lightning setup with Charbonnet as the lightning back. That could lead to a platoon split but typically results in a lead/alternate setup with the lightning back as the alternate. The Seahawks have ranked near the bottom of the league the past couple seasons in completions to running backs, so that caps the value of a pass-catching back in this offense. Five of the final nine games from Weeks 9-17 include red-rated matchups, a factor leading to a low matchup points total.

Overall case: Charbonnet has a one of the best high-floor/high-ceiling combinations among alternate/platoon candidates and thus is a strong low-tier RB3.

Draft strategy: He may not last beyond the eighth round, but the high-floor/high-ceiling combo can easily justify a ninth-round selection for Charbonnet.

Raheem Mostert, MIA

Upside case: Mostert’s familiarity with the Mike McDaniel offense gave him a playing time edge last season and he used that to lead the Dolphins running backs in scrimmage plays by a wide margin. That knowledge also helped Mostert extend his impact play history in a McDaniel offense by ranking 16th in plays that gained 10+ yards. He may be in his age-31 season, but Mostert only has 532 career scrimmage plays and therefore doesn’t have much wear. Mostert led the Dolphins in red zone and inside the 10-yard line carries last year, so McDaniel has faith in him for those important carries.

Downside case: There is little doubt Miami will operate a RBBC backfield with Mostert, Jeff Wilson Jr., and De’Von Achane. Wilson and Achane both have produced solid to good breakaway metrics during their respective careers, and Wilson is just as well versed in the McDaniel offense, so Mostert’s experience edges are effectively offset. Mostert and Wilson have proven workload ceilings, but Achane doesn’t, so Miami may want to see if Achane can be the top committee back. The Dolphins have the toughest rush defense schedule, with six red-rated matchups and only two green-rated ones.

Overall case: Mostert was an upper-tier RB2 last year as the Dolphins’ de facto lead back, but there doesn’t look to be a clear path for him to replicate that feat. Since he’s now headed down the committee path, Mostert rates as a solid RB4.

Draft strategy: The Dolphins running backs don’t have a consensus valuation due to the uncertain workload distribution, so Mostert will typically move off draft boards sometime in Rounds 11-12.

Kenneth Gainwell, PHI

Upside case: Gainwell didn’t get many scrimmage plays last season yet took full advantage when given the football, as he had the eighth-highest percentage of 10+ yard gains among running backs with 70+ touches. The Eagles have a blocking wall that annually contends for the No. 1 spot in GBR, and the team will be utilizing a RBBC approach, so Gainwell should get his fair share of work in 2023. Gainwell and D’Andre Swift have very similar pass-catching metrics, meaning the third-down back role could be split between them. Gainwell scored three touchdowns on six rushes inside the 5-yard line last year, so he could also take a portion of the goal-line work.

Downside case: Swift is the most likely of the Eagles’ four primary running backs to take the rush lead in the committee and he could have an edge in the third-down role as well. Gainwell’s goal-line role last year was as part of a rotation behind Jalen Hurts, who is going to claim the majority of those rush attempts. Gainwell’s 5-foot-9, 200-pound frame will disincentivize the Eagles from giving him a larger role sans injury. The schedule doesn’t have a green-rated rush defense matchup until Week 15.

Overall case: It can be tough to get reliable point totals in the RB4/RB5 tier, but this Eagles offense offsets some of that unreliability. That turns Gainwell into a preferable RB4/RB5 candidate since he sits at the edge of those tiers.

Draft strategy: Gainwell is a good, low-cost way to get a share of the Eagles offense — in Rounds 12-13 in some draft rooms — but he may be available as a post-draft waiver option in some leagues.

Devin Singletary, HOU

Upside case: Houston’s backfield is in many ways a perfect fit for Singletary’s skills. He is an adept pass blocker and solid pass catcher, two areas that Dameon Pierce has struggled in. The Texans are going to run the ball early and often this season and Pierce’s running style is conducive to a lot of contact, so Singletary could be one of the most heavily utilized alternate backs in 2023. This could include some goal-line usage, as Singletary led the Bills in that category last season. It’s possible Houston will turn this into a platoon setup. Singletary had 31 carries of 10+ yards last year, so he can make the most out of a limited workload.

Downside case: Pierce did well in the lead back role last year and Houston is aiming for him to improve his pass game deficiencies, both of which trend towards a lead/alternate setup with Singletary as the alternate. Houston will likely be a contender for lowest scoring offense in the league, so goal-line carries could be at a minimum. The schedule is very demanding, as there is only one green-rated matchup all year and two red-rated matchups in the first four weeks.

Overall case: It’s not easy to augur the Houston running back workload distribution, but the early reading of the tea leaves suggests that Singletary will be an alternate back. That results in a borderline RB4/RB5 valuation with some mid-range RB4 upside.

Draft strategy: He is a must-have ninth round handcuff pick for fantasy managers who draft Pierce, but those without Pierce on a roster can take Singletary in Rounds 11-12.

Jaylen Warren, PIT

Upside case: Najee Harris has been the most utilized back in the league over the past two years and that hefty workload may be negatively impacting his per play productivity levels. Warren posted a higher GBYPA last year than Harris (8.0 versus 7.4) and had a higher YPR mark (7.6 versus 5.6), so Pittsburgh can increase Warren’s workload and save Harris some wear and tear while gaining some per play production in the process.

Downside case: Coaches are usually very hesitant to cull the rush and reception volume of bell cow backs and typically won’t demote them to lead back status unless absolutely necessary. Harris is so durable that he hasn’t even shown up on the final injury report in his first two NFL seasons, so Warren is very unlikely to get any starting time due to a Harris injury.

Overall case: How much fantasy value should one give to a running back who will have a low workload ceiling even if he manages to earn alternate back status? It’s the quandary for anyone drafting Warren and works itself out with an RB5 rating.

Draft strategy: Warren is worthy of draft consideration in Rounds 12 or 13.

Tank Bigsby, JAC

Upside case: Doug Pederson wants to move at least some of the backfield work away from Travis Etienne. That is a good base for Bigsby to build on, and ranking second in the SEC last year in rushes of 20+ yards versus Power 5 teams shows Bigsby can craft solid fantasy points out of those rushes. Etienne scored only two touchdowns on 10 rushes inside the 5-yard line last year, so the 6-foot, 213-pound Bigsby may acquire his share of those in the powerhouse Jacksonville offense.

Downside case: Etienne was tied for fourth among running backs in plays that gained 20+ yards last year. The Jaguars may want to keep him from wearing out, but they aren’t about to switch a huge amount of work away from a back who has proven breakaway ability at the NFL level, so Bigsby will almost certainly end up as an alternate back. Jacksonville has a ton of quality receivers and could convert some of the rushing attack into short passes. There are six red-rated matchups (including four in the first 10 games) and only three green-rated matchups on this season’s schedule.

Overall case: Bigsby is a must-have handcuff pick for Etienne’s fantasy managers, but that’s far from his only value, as he is one of the few alternate backs with a good shot at a larger workload sans injury to the starter. Rate him as an RB5 with RB4 upside.

Draft strategy: He should be on most draft boards in Rounds 13-14.

(Lon Horwedel-USA TODAY Sports)

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